In previous posts, we discussed the idea of Cambrian explosions of intelligence and information. As intelligence increases in the world, so too does information. And so too does complexity. The 3 move in unison towards ever higher degrees. The problem is that we don’t notice it because of the chaos, randomness, and complications in our world, but complexity everywhere we look. 

Start with a simple definition of complexity; multiple interacting, interdependent intelligent agents spontaneously organizing into complex adaptive systems that are unpredictable capable of emergent behavior. Complexity is a very different animal than being complicated. Knowing the difference is crucial. 

A watch is complicated, consisting of lots of little gears and springs. Now suppose you open the back of the watch and take out the first gear you see (usually the Mainspring Barrel) and seal it back up. The watch will cease to work correctly. It does not adapt to the missing gear. 

Compare that to a soccer team. In the first new minutes of a game, a player receives a red card and is ejected from the game. The team is forced to play the remainder of the game with 10 players instead of 11. And yet, unlike the watch, the soccer team continues to function. Indeed, teams down a person have something like a 23% chance of winning. How so? The soccer team reconfigures itself into different formations compensating for the missing player. It is the intelligence of the soccer players and their capability to adapt to changing circumstances that drives this reconfiguration of parts and is at the heart of complexity.

Complexity is present whenever intelligence organizes itself into groups. Groups are all around us: cities, states, alliances, armies, companies, economies, governments, civilizations, the Internet, business ecosystems, etc. These various groups spawn a wide range of behaviors that vary in complexity. At the top of the food chain is the phenomenon of war, the most complex and unpredictable human activity of all. 

Intelligence drives complexity because it likes to keep its options open. The more options you have the better off you generally are. You have more ways to adapt to changing circumstances. Over the years, humans have created technology that provides more optionality. Think back to the early Middle Ages. Your choice of career was largely determined by who your father was. If your father was king, you would be the king (if you were first born). If your father was a farmer, that was your occupation as well. There was no career counseling in those days. Today, we are taught the world is our oyster. We can be anything we want. Hundreds of thousands of careers are all available to us if we have the passion to follow our dreams. 

Optionality drives complexity because the number of paths forward in the future are astronomical. Our choices influence and are influenced by choices of other intelligent agents. The number of paths forward from today to a year of now is staggering. In 5 years, the paths are astronomically high. When things were simpler, we could forecast 5 years out; today its hard to forecast 5 months out. With the technology we now have available at our fingertips, the pace of change is increasing and will increase. The challenge for us is to deal with the complexity we have created. If we do not, then we are at its mercy. So how do we contend with complexity? 

The answer can be found that the end of the episode 10 of first season of the series Shogun. Yabushige asks Toranaga how it feels to be able to shape the wind to his will, to which Toranaga replies “I don’t control the wind, I only study it.” Rather than waste time and effort to bend the wind to his will, Toranaga observes the environment around him, makes note of what is motivating the various players, and then uses the information he has gathered through these observations to find advantageous situations. Patience, foresight, and adaptability will win out in the long run every time over a futile attempt to direct events that are outside of your control. Remember you cannot control the wind. You can’t influence it either. However, if you understand it deeply enough, you will be able to respond to its effects at the right time in the right way to thrive and put yourself in advantageous situations because you understand the forces at play and how they interact. Here are some dimensions of the wind to study. 

Complexity is ubiquitous in today’s world. Anything that is not natural in origin is made by some sort of intelligence. And when there is intelligence, complexity follows. Nature does not do straight lines so design is a good indicator of complexity (this idea is at the heart of the Intelligent Design argument). Design is always a good place to start when studying complex systems. Look at the various parts and their relationships with one another.
Questions can help here. How do the parts interact with each other? Is there one part that is more important than the others? Is there a single point of failure? How does the system behave over time? The more you understand the nature of what you study, the greater your ability will be to forecast likely outcomes. 

Complex systems typically display exponential behavior. Humans see the world as inherently linear having a hard time grasping the implications of exponentiality. The compounding effect of money is one such example of how fast something can increase over a short period of time. Exponential behavior indicates reinforcing loops (either positive or negative) at play causing drastic increases or declines. Exponentiality shortens the time frame it takes for something to increase or decrease by a large amount. 

Complex systems are a showcase for adaptability and emergent behavior. Adaptability is the ability to respond to changes in the environment. Adaptability indicated dynamism. Without it, the system is static and prone to break. Adaptability leads directly to emergent behavior which can be defined as unexpected patterns arising from the collective interaction of simple parts. The whole is greater than the sum. Humans are fantastic at inventing emergent behavior when adapting to problems. New and unique behavior can be a strong indicator of complexity. 

Self organization is another hallmark of complex systems. Back to the soccer team. When down a man, the players on the pitch constantly adjust their formation to compensate for the loss. The coach can advise them but the initiative to do so comes from the players themselves. It is their soccer IQ coming to the fore. They maintain their shape on the field by making small adjustments. The game Survivor is another showcase for self organization as players who have never met one another form alliances as the game progresses. There is no central function directing this. Each player examines the situation in the game and makes decisions about which players to partner with and which to vote off. This process is highly dynamic. Today’s friends can be tomorrow’s adversaries. 

When studying complex systems, become a master of cause and effect. Do not be fooled by what appears to be randomness. Often times we chalk certain events up to chance or luck but if we were to study closer, we would see intricate and hidden chains of cause and effect at play that take time to play out. What appears to be chaotic is actually a complex system responding to changes in the environment. When looking at cause and effect, remember that hidden variables may be at play. If there is no obvious chain of cause and effect visible, look under the covers to see what is not there. Usually there is a hidden variable waiting to be discovered. Also be patient. As stated before it can take time for these chains to play out. We have a timeline, nature does not. 

Finally a word of caution. It requires time, energy, and focus to study complexity. It is not for the faint of heart. It requires a commitment. If you make the effort, you will get good at gaining a fingertip feel for where things are going. But just as quickly, you can lose it because the commitment is no longer there. History is littered with examples of players who burst onto the scene with the ability to understand complex situations and using that to their advantage. Names like Julius Caesar, Napoleon, and Hitler come to mind. But just as quickly, while sitting at the apex of their power and capabilities, things unraveled. Arrogance and complacency set. The focus and energy are not there. Shortcuts are taken. If you really want to reach the mastery level of studying the wind like Toranaga, realize it takes commitment to reap the rewards and pleasure of understanding where the wind is blowing before it does so.